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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  January 31, 2012 9:00am-12:00pm EST

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more and i don't mind. oliver wendall holmes said that the taxes are the price you pay for living in a civilized civilization. so i would not be what i am without taxes. >> and i can't think of a better way to get rid of the lobbyists. >> well, guess who is going the write the tax code and what will be stuck in it. and thank you for joining us, howard dean. "squawk on the street" starts right now. ♪ good morning and welcome the "squawk on the street" i'm melissa lee with carl quintanilla and jim cramer. the latest standard and poor released the case-schiller report, and we will take a closer look. and meanwhile, looking at the futures and dow looking out about 43 points and the s&p at
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fi five. and on europe, a fiscal accord, but no greek deal. and we are seeing the dax higher than 1%. here is the road map for this tuesday, and u.p.s., and lift as the market gets a best start to the year since '97, but pfizer could be a damper as it ratchets down the 2012 expectations. and the florida polls show mitt romney in the lead. can newt gingrich still survive as his momentum from south carolina seems to be evaporating? and a fresh low after taking down forecasts citing weakness from sprint. meantime, the antithesis of the stock, amazon is set to report earnings after the close. and unusual move by apple and names an outsider the new head of retail from dixons, but who is john browette and does he have the same touch of a ron johnson who heads jcpenney and that is the question as apple approaches the fresh record high even in today's session.
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jim, a lot of earnings to parse through, and you said it could be benign environment to set aside europe and look at corporate america and the news we are getting here. >> well, corporate america is mean and lean and pfizer is a company who fired a lot of people and done a lot of reorganizations and working and exxon is a fat company and i feel like exxon should be making a ton of money here given where oil is, but they are not, because you have to drill more and drilling is expensive, so i mention these two, because it is case by case. obviously, radio shack, the endless rumors they were going to go private, and a la pep boys yesterday, but it is not possib possible. it is doing too poorly and at the same time it will reflect on sprint, and at the same time u.p.s. is doing well, and although not well enough to blow away the numbers. i do think that people will look at the internet numbers for u.p.s. and extrapolate and say to buy amazon and i want to tell you that jeff did tell you that we are spending a lot of money,
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because we want game, set, match in the internet world. >> it is interesting how u.p.s. will be the basis for extrapolation for the amazon quarter which is due out both in capturing, you know, the very strong holiday season at the end there. david, in terms of amazon, it is a stock that you have followed over the years. >> well, certainly, and we have all followed it closely. we will see. what comes to mind with amazon is that you have to remember that last quarter, right, some disappointme poinpointment and we know from the long history of the company they do invest for the long term, and if you are in a investor there, you have to be patient, but ultimately, you will be reward and that being said the multiple is quite high on this stock, so you are push and pull to a certain extent, right, jim? >> well, at the same time, david, this is maybe one of those situations where they have guided down and they have said that we are way below where the
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street is, so it turns out that the holiday season was so, so great, don't you think that triggers a short squeeze from the people leaning on the stock? >> it could, it could. i mean, i'm not up to speed on just how much of the float is short or how many days to ending, but there are plenty of people out there looking for it, and it would not be the first time for a short squeeze. >> yes, january being a part where the companies are guiding down and the companies come out and guided down and say it is a disappointment, but it is not a disappointment against the whisp whisper, because this is a season where the whisper is lower than the quarter. i didn't expect them to earn that much, and i had ted caylee on last night and there was a whisper of, well, it is okay, and no inventory and completely sold out. and arm holdings a lower whisper and they blow up the number. what is going on? cell phone, cell phone, cell phone. cell phone is a continual theme in tech and you cannot make enough cell phones quickly, if
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you are apple. >> and on the cell phone subject, and we hit radio shack going down sharply, and you mentioned sprint and look and say $2 stock and $2.16 to be exact before it trades today, but don't forget the enormous debt that company has raised $4 billion in the public and private markets in last november and probably having to go back again in the not too distant futu future, and of course, sprint, and we won't hear from the company's earnings until february 9th as you look at radio shack who squarely pointed the blame at sprint. >> and the ceo said, you are the worst operators in the world and you are blaming us? >> due in part to the post business and change in the customer models resulting in further unanticipated charges in sprint's companies and further aggravations -- and do you call them up and say, you are throwing us under the bus?
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>> yes, totally. >> and without sprint, i am confident about our business and without the sprint problem, everything is okay, and you mean that the world is not shifting to higher margin products which radioshack does not have. >> i wanted to buy a transistor radio and i said, where i am going to get one of those? an alarm clock? and radioshack, aren't you shocked that there is nothing there, david? >> how do you know i go there? well, there one in my neighborhood and i go there. >> you buy batteries. that is all you buy. >> i used to buy real phone, you know, the one with these things, but you don't do that anymore, do you? i have toys. >> and you go there to buy things that plugs something into. >> and converters and mundane and low-margin things. >> but it may not be enough to survive. >> and it was a year or so ago with a takeover chatter around this name and i came out and said that the p.e. firms i
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talked to were not interested and the stock did fall and now a $7 stock when it was in the high teens. >> didn't the "new york post" say it was a done deal, seven times? right. how many times did they say it was a done deal? >> too many to count. >> yes. >> and the rumor had been that best buy would buy radioshack for the share and now tie the two together. >> and yes, i will look at both of those and then go the amazon which is how i avoid the sales tax and everybody gets happy. >> and a best buy now in the premarket trade down. >> i love them. big box and strike back, best buy. what is it makes a comeback? >> yes, we talked about pfizer in the tease and first quarter seeing the effects of lipitor and even with the nonexclusivity sales down 24%, and it is best to put it behind us and -- >> oh, telegraph. one thing about big pharma they
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have said over and over again, these thing s as are coming off the patent and we have developed longer term strategies to deal with this. the street has been forgiving on the companies an unlike exxon they are forgiving because the dividend issanctcrosanct, and i have this indianapolis company and i can't believe that the line is back to favoring the patriots with the super bowl coming up, but when you look at what lily did saying that the dividend is safe, that is what is driving the retail investors and where they are these days where they feel comfortable. >> and lily has a 5% dividend yield. and pfizer 4.1%. >> it is what people want. bristol-myers, great dividend, right? focus on the dividends, because they are what people want. they don't want exxon's buyback, and the buyback only helps for the hedge funds to get out of a stock. go see what occidental said about buybacks and i want to use the word fraud almost, but steve
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chase of occidental said that the buybacks help the hedge funds get out and not the regular shareholders and i agree, and the executives to get the options to meet the compensation numbers. buy bok backs are the defrocked he heldp the shareholders. >> you believe that? >> well, a couple have worked. >> well, novello, and auto zone, and sears on the one side. where are my hands. tlt we go. and we are talking about eddie lampert and the portfolio, right? >> well, how many buybacks where they bought the stocks incredibly high like the ceos know anything about stocks. >> true, true. checkered history -- >> checked. you are a diplomat, and you have always been a diplomat. >> i try to temper you, because i love you, babe, and you are out there. >> i have to be out there. >> and you are way out there. >> and i have to be on the moon in the 51st state. >> you are going the open up the bureau. >> and isn't that gingrich and
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what romney is saying that gingrich is say dshg. >> we now go to jim cramer from the moon. >> what about in the first debates 86 languages spoke to miami-dade and up to 94 and within days eight new languages and gingrich is like -- hey, listen, 57 new language, because he looked at the ketchup bottle. >> speaking of florida, it is going to be interesting and looks like romney's lead, david, has blown out completely and now chatter about what it will take to sort of wrap this all up in some way if romney gets more than 50% and to me that is a margin large enough to say that romney can win, and then the singing thing that we will listen to right now. >> hmm. ♪ oh beautiful for spacious skies for amber waves of grain for purple mountain's majesty above the fruited plains ♪ >> did anyone hear the president
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singing al green? that guy was dynamite and the best al green i have heard. >> and then you have to have him sing al green also so you can have a apples to apples comparison. >> that was not nearly as bad as what we heard from romney, right? >> it was not this from the president. ♪ i -- so in love with you >> i would go right to itunes. >> and sales of that song were up 500% of the president's version. >> and now according to politico the president has been invited to sing on "american idol" and melissa and i were saying they have the give equal time. >> to be fair. >> and go to "the voice" and see if they recognize him and see who turns around. >> and press the button and turn around and wouldn't that be dynamite tv. >> what if nobody wants him that. would be something. >> come on, adam lavine, and maroon 5.
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>> christine agulaira would take him. >> and the president has game when it comes the al green, honestly, and look, if mitt had been sipging li isinging like - >> what would you have him sing? >> james brown, papa >> james brown, pappa's got a brand new -- oh, so not romney. geez. >> and it is going to ban interesting night to the florida primary, and we have three weeks to the next debate and so a little room to breathe. >> oh, no, i will miss the debates. >> gingrich said he will hang around and no doubt, because even if he loses big tonight? >> yes, thanks to we know who even though we can't coordinate with that big pac, aidleson has elongated the game and not changed it,longatedelongated. >> and what about foster freeze being santorum's guy. and we wept back to the idea ta you could own a candidate, and
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own, david, i am using quote marks. >> it is not -- >> no jazz hands, because those are quotes? >> yes, giant quotes. >> jazz hands? [ laughter ] >> and winners and losers coming to the winners and losers. >> i can do tina turper. "big wheels keep on turning ♪ >> i bet you can. >> one more look at futures poised to open. we will talk about europe after the break, too. undai genesis. in a new, faster-acting formula. zero-to-sixty in less time than a porsche panamera s. the 429 horsepower genesis r-spec. from hyundai.
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let's get back to key housing data out. the latest s&p case-schiller numbers show that the housing declined last year and the composites down 43% from november from october. and with us is david blitzer who joins us from new york. david, good morning to you. >> good morning. >> looks a little bit worse than october, and the second month in a row that 19 of 20 cities saw declines. what is going on here? >> what is going on obviously is that housing prices continue to decline while there had been some improvement in the foreclosure picture of all, there are still a lot of foreclosures out there, and we are hearing some stories that the process of foreclosures is sort of going through the pipeline has accelerated, and that is definitely had an impact. i think that as much as anything else as one looks at housing, and there are hints of better times in terms of supply, in
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terms of single-family starts, prices will probably be the last thing to move. we have to get the demand up, and took it en the supply a little bit. before we will see any shift in prices. we haven't seen that. on top of that, the ability of most people to get mortgages or people to refinance mortgages is still extremely limited, and that's clearly a major factor even though interest rates are incredibly low. >> david, are we at a point where we have to start look agent this shadow inventory, and vacant housing as simply unsalable, and meaning that it is now in bad neighborhoods without any services and the reason i say that is because d.r. horton reported a very good numbers and reported that the sales of new homes are good, but homes with new infrastructure and in newer neighborhoods, and is this just nonsalable homes bringing it down? >> in many cases it is non-salable real estate and in the boom areas in the southwest
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and florida where the real estate was the major industries. so you pulled out a chunk of the economic base and got rid of the major industry and you have not one house on block unoccupied, and you probably have one house on the block that is occupied. clearly, you will lose the infrastructure and you have to be somebody who wants to be a pioneer and not a homeowner to move into that kind of area. so there is that problem, and it is concentrated in the hard hit city which is the southwest, florida and obviously detroit, although detroit is one of the few spots that is showing some improvement in the last few months. i think that in large part because the desolate neighborhoods are desolate and now some movement in the better suburbs in and around detroit. >> so to jim's point to deal with the unsalable real estate in the hardest hit parts of the country, would it do good to remove the inventory?
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destroy is the houses and improve the overall market, and is that a valid solution? >> well, i don't know if you have to tear down the houses, but i think that we have to recognize what is going on. although, periodically in studies of urban renewal people come up with the arguments that, you know, take such and such a neighborhood and level it, and fence it off for the next 15 years until we need the land and then come back in. but that is in effect what is going to happen to some of the areas. it is unfortunate and the inf infrastructure kind of dies off or rots away, but that is the only way to do it. once we get more demand back, we will have improvement, and there have been comments that until recently household formation was very low and that is a big factor in building housing demand. if we create 1 million households a year which is less than the number should be, then you probably need 1 million
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hou houses, but we haven't been creating 1 million households a year, so we don't need the houses. >> well, we will see what next month brings, but important number to keep in mind today, david. thanks for your time. >> thank you. >> see you next time. and kimberly clark called out a rapidly declining birthrate in the country when they talked about diapers. >> yes. >> and this could be a secular team that people are not -- and we are beginning to grow the population similar to europe and we are no longer a great children-bearing population, and procter seemed to indicate that, too. >> and compounded by the fact that the children in the 20s sometimes living at home, and not creating their own households after college. >> something worth watching, because there is a lot of companies that base the business on u.s. having more children -- >> demographics. >> than other countries, and it is not happening. >> and we showed you radioshack down in the premarket trade and this is after a disappointing fourth quarter forecast after the close.
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some analysts say a sign of long-term changes in the long struggling retailer's business. on "squawk on the street" we want to know which retailer give yos u the worst shopping experience and why. you can tweet us and don't be gentle, but honest and we will share your responses through the morning. and how to charge january like a bull. get ready for cramer's mad dash as we head to the break, and the futures heading to the break looks like the dow could add 6 points. portunity you didn't see before. fidelity's next generation ipad app lets you see what's trending around the world, as well as what over a million fidelity customers are trading throughout the day. and advanced charting lets you customize your views and set up your own comparisons. our ipad app can help refine your strategy or even find a new one. i'm velia carboni, and i helped create fidelity's next generation ipad app. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity.
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golden living my life like it is golden ♪ ♪ living my life like it is golden ♪ welcome back to "squawk on the street" i'm sharon epperson. we are looking at the oil prices well above $100 a barrel for t.i. futures and also approaching key levels for brent crude as well. keep in mind that as the global equities are stronger, and the euros are stronger and the dollar weaker, we are looking at buying activity here in the oil sector, but not so in the natural gas because they are under pressure approaching the $2.50, and we got a report from the energy information administration talking about the record amount of supply and production of natural gas, and that is something that continues to pressure the prices as well as the warmer temperatures that are expected through the month of february. in terms of the gold prices, key level here is 1750 and that where we are approaching right now for gold which remains firm here and the buying for gold is quite strong for the start of the year.
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back to you guys. >> thank you, sharon epperson. five minutes before the bell rings. and the mad dash ahead of the be bell. and you had the ceo on yesterday which confirmed the notion that the chip companies are spending a lot of money. >> well, in is involving the arms race and getting your cell phone to be more powerful and use less battery and be thinner. this is the rage. you have to understand that in arm holdings is saying to take 40% of the business is right in the face of intel saying we won't lose that business, because they all need semiconductor business to make it happen. little inventory in the channel, and that is why they can go higher and the novello slam is in deep competition. >> and which is better, because with the size of the novello slam now, and they said without question, they are poised to gain a significant share of that new spending. >> well, novelis was a short
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company, and remember, that caylee is smoking. they had an unbelievable last month, and they beat the numbers by, they were up by 95%. i mean, they beat the numbers dramatically and no visibility to the fact that they had a rush of orders in the last three week of the quarter. amazing. >> as one analyst said that the quarter could not have been strong stronger. >> that is the upside surprise other than apple that i have seen this quarter. and today, the downside surprise that i have seen today is the awful numbers is -- and just a terrible and you don't want to say some company is terrible, because i will leave it to say others, but they are bad. they keep missing. i mean, come on the ag business is a good business. >> we will talk more about that and a bunch of other things involving europe coming back as "squawk on the street" continues in a emtt movement -- continues in a moment. today, two hot products moving the bottom line for
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amazon and viacom. amazon and viacom. guy adami with the [ male announcer ] let's level the playing field.
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>> yes. i mean, people have very little memory for what happens in the morning and that is a continual theme in 2012 and before people were so worried about being long overnight they sold between 3:00 and 4:00 and they don't fear overnight, and a major change in 2012. >> opening bell there with the s&p 500 at the top of the screen and the big board oklahoma-based ngl energy partners and at the nasdaq representatives from news corp.'s fox news. you think that the bdax is the tell? >> well, they have decent growth there, and merkelle lis in cha and she has asserted herself and they have a process, and i like that germany is all of the companies are doing well, and deutsche bank standing out, and germany is a strong country and makes me think that portugal versus germany, don't worry about it. >> the front page of the f.t., and they say that the next round of the rtlros are going to be
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shy. >> and who is funding that? well, f shg, if it remains murki think that the mf global, because of the call vaporized, but the strategy was a little early. timing is everything. >> but is that a sip of liquidity pressures or good news that they could go out the buy more sovereigns? >> more good news, and even is talking about the kicking the can down the road, and -- look, we had astounding numbers coming out of our country yesterday. we have a decline first quarter borrowing costs and borrow 18% less money than we thought, because the tax receipts are going higher, and the tax recements bringing in more, because the country is growing. the way to get out of the jam is growth. i hope that merkel gets that, and growth gets out of every jam, ronald reagan. >> we mentioned u.p.s. earlier today and aside from the numbers they say they see mixed economic
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growth around the world, and modest improvement in the u.s. >> that is big. remember they were blasting -- >> that is not exactly gang busters. >> well, a couple of quarters ago they were singling out the u.s. as being anti-capitalist, and taking it further from what you said, but that is off of the agenda. u.p.s. is echoing what i hear from the companies which is that the united states is no longer a drag on the world. the united states is beginning to be a tail wind to the world, and that is terrific. >> gold at $17.47 this morning. >> well, germany and look at somebody paying for that in europe and it is all -- and by the way, china, new data, and china buying gold like mad, and give credit to "forbes" magazine, and give credit where credit is due. and now qualcomm is breaking out, and that is similar to arm holdings, because qualcomm has snap dragon and everything is cell phone, people, everything. >> and speak iing of which, app, which is the new chief of retail, and john broward who they have hired from dixons
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which is described to me and others as the poor man's best buy in the uk, is that true? >> well, i have never felt that dixons was that great of an op ray or the, b-- operator, but i defer to tim cook and he picked them. maybe he is a master, but i didn't know it. ron johnson was and look at what he did with jcpenney, but it is premature and people should sell it. >> and also -- >> these are troubled entities, rig right. >> and he has to get into china in a bigger way. >> well, maybe good ties there, and china is so -- you are so right, carl, that is the key to the next leg. >> of apple. and over the melissa and bob and see what is going on there. >> best start to the s&p 500 since 1957. >> yes. it has been a good start overall, and europe and asia -- >> and china -- >> -- and they have had double-digit gains. i have been away in key west
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doing research. it is a hot research bed. >> that is where the sons of apple go. >> and what struck me is the stream of e-mails from traders saying, bob, have you noticed the headlines never changed on greece. it is the same headline everyday and we got it today. papa ddopoulos says, we have th increase. and it is the same headline everyday. it is going to change. but the bottom line is that the focus has shifted and it is not on the private sector debt talks anymore, and most of the commentary have been about public sector debt and whether that is going to happen and even more international assistance beyond the $130 billion bailout holding over their head now, because greece again is not close to making the targets. the gdp is in free fall and they have no idea what the gdp is over there. so the game now is the ecb going
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to be taking a haircut? did you see what happened today, mr. jianger the prime minister of luxembourg will not rule out public sector bailout for public debt, and the ecb said don't talk to us, but it is an important factor. and look at the greece debt in january, and the old adage. >> after being down how much? >> 80% in the last several years. but the new joke on the floor is as goes january goes pa papadopoul papadopoulos. and remember, they got the f fiscal treaty and the reason is because of the emphasis on austerity and growth and there is austerity fatigue in europe right now and that is why there are no cheers going on. have you seen the $1 trillion
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facility? it is a big one. they are going the back the truck up and build a $1 trillion facility, and that is huge. mention about the drug stocks and jim talked about the good yields on these, and only 5%, or maybe 7% of the s&p 500 had yields over 4%, and most of them are in the form of reits or utiliti utilities, but the drug stocks are all up there. lil lilly, and pfizer and merck and bristol-myers, and that is what is pushing the yields. >> thank you, bob. over to chicago to get the buzz as the opening bell has rung, and let's bring in the chief derivative strategist over at the cme. >> no matter what we have done in january, regardless of what we have done and yesterday being a perfect example the s&p 500
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was down 3 and then we have seen the futures rally that much overnight. and today, the s&p 500 cash is back up 6 as were the futures, so it is an interesting pattern to see, and the last time we saw it, it happened 15 trading days in a row, and now we have gone the entire month of january with this and what happened last time once we got up to resistance we did have a day of sharp sell-off. the bright spot a week later back to where we started so maybe the traders here are looking for the 1333 area to see if the same pattern follows through. >> j.j., we have to keep it short here, and appreciate it. j.j. from td ameritrade. >> thank you. and check on the bonds and the dollar with rick santelli over at the cme. >> good morning, carl. i think that the traders are still talking a little bit about the case-shiller being granted that it didn't look like a lot of movement, but seasonally adjusted close to the nine-year lows, so we need to pay
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attention to that off of the 30 to 33% from the '06 highs, and of course, in five or six minute wes will get the chicago purchasing managing survey and consumer confidence yet to come out, but no matter how you slice it or the greek market is for 2012, what continues to jump out at me is how boons and bobbles and guilts and treasuries remain to bid, and that is a dynamic hard to run away from and we will continue to monitor the greece solutions that are within a grasp of the fingertips. back to you. >> thank you, rick santelli. back to headquarters with david faber who has the "faber report" and more on radioshack, david? >> yes, we will hit that and the impact for sprint. not often that you see one company throw another company under the bus, but that is what radioshack did after the bell yesterday reporting disappointing results for the fourth quarter of 2011 and pointing to difficult 2012 and
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largely because of the company of the weakness of sprint. as you see that stock is nearing a three-year low and saying quote, listen, sprint's underperformance and the postpaid wireless business and we reflect our results also reflecting further unanticipated the sprint customer and credit models and resulted in fewer and new activations and the postpaid revenues in fourth quarter and go on from there and later they say, hey, we are confident in the health of the business absent the sprint progress, and the initiatives put in place last year, and they say that the current run rates we look for 2012 net income to be down compared to 2011 with challenging comparisons for the first quarter and sequential quarterly improvement. there is a look at sprint of course, and not a pretty picture either. it is a company that has $20 billion worth of debt. remember they sold another $4 billion worth of notes last
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november that was a $1 billion worth of ten-year notes and through 2018 guaranteed 9% per coupon and 11% on and the other 10-year notes that were $1 billion and don't be surprised if sprint comes back to the capital markets in the not too distant future and the company will report numbers on february 9th, and one would anticipate we would get an offering of some kind as they continue the raise debt as they try to build more capacity for the 4g offerings, and a deal with clearwire and a number of challenges. 2012 is an inflection year for sprint, and after that, the cash flow will start to get bert, jim, and don't forget all of the money they have to pay apple. >> all right. take radioshack at face val yushgs and spriue and nobody doubts the reliability, and people feel that sprint offers the best deal, so what is so wrong with
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the sprint product that radioshack is so upset? >> i don't know why they weren't selling as much, but we can guess that there was more interest in the products associated with verizon and at&t, and sprint's great marketing pitch is now, well, we have a lot of capacity on the network. because we don't have that many customers so we have the fastest speeds. not sure that is a winning combinati combination. >> nobody wants to join the club, so it is wide open. >> come to the stores, because there is no traffic. >> and we are talking about the survival of number three, which is a important competitor in the wireless wars, and a capital structure that as i have said is a difficult one in terms of the debt. but nonetheless, big year this year for sprint 2012. after that, cash flow gets better. back to you guys. >> all right. see you later, david. of course, you know all about radioshack's woes at this point, and which retailer gives you the worst shopping experience and why? that is is the the twitter question today. we have theness as coming up.
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and as we go to break, look at the early movers here on wall street. it looks like edwards lifesciences is the leader there. world-class service the bond report is sponsored by pimco, your global investment authority. that's not in our policy. i will transfer you now. my supervisor is currently not available. would you like to hold ? that department is currently closed. have i helped you with everything you needed ? if your bank doesn't give you knowledgeable customer service 24/7, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense.
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some breaking news ob midwest manufacturing. rick santelli, tab ke it away. >> we are looking at 60.2 which is the january read for the manufacturing survey, and 60.2 is the weakest we have had since october which was 59.3. the market is definitely going to be paying a little bit of attention to this. we are over 3% on the 30-year bond, but we are moving quite slowly on the fixed income side. most of these are close to unchanged after yesterday's buying and the euro currency started to break rather heavily against at the dollar a few moments before this was released
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so whether it is chicago which is subscription, or the events to handicap that as the day moves on. >> and now let's go to "squawk on the street" as you know radioshack quoting a poor earnings forecast and analysts say a long term change on the struggling retailers business. so today on the tweet we want to know which retailer gives you the worst shopping experience and why. and debra says kmart, and good luck trying to find somebody. and kevin says victoria secret, because i'm a guy. and this one, is walmart, because the lines are long and i always get stuck behind someone really dressed down. and old navy looks like a war zone. gap has exactly what i don't wear and banana has the same for twice as much. >> what a sell block gap, and the family keeps buying stock
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and buying back. >> that is one example of a terrible buyback stock. >> and ever since drexelle left. >> they fired him and that made a lot of sense, because he turned around to j. crew, and he is the most sought after executive and integral in going toe to toe with steve jobs at apple and speaking up to steve jobs to say, we should do it that way. >> and one of the ceoss wi witht cult of personality. >> he runs squared and low inventory is the philosophy except for when it is right. he is a great guy. everybody knows him thinks he is a great guy. >> fun at a party, and he has a fashion sense for sure. j. kre j cr j. crew has been on trend. >> yes. we are working on something. and people are sad it is no longer a public company, because you got insight into things and listening to mickey on calls and
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they have public debt, so they do report, but it is a loss by many. >> he did not consider to be the greatest analyst out there just for the record. >> no, that is true. well said. of course, when it comes to retail and drexler, there was a connection with ron johnson given that drexler is on the board with apple and helped in terms of the early apple stores and encouraged them to build a mock store to experiment with it, and we will see what johnson can do at jcpenny as he moves on and now the new announcement from apple who will replace him. >> and how does the jcrew suit fit for you, david? >> i don't have a jcrew suit. >> i have one. mine is great jacket and i thought it should work as a sport coat and mickey was making fun and said to get the pants, too, but the sports coat is great, too. >> i have weekend stuff, like sweaters and those kinds of
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stuff. >> well, easy come, and easy go, david. >> well, we get our clothes and you don't, because you have some kind of -- >> same colored pants? >> well, carl and i are dressed head-to-toe by cnbc. that is will all there is to it. >> i wear one of the briani sweatpants. >> and like the mc hammer pants. >> i need freedom of movement for "mad money." i need freedom of movement. >> i could go so many ways. >> we need a break. >> and in case you were wondering the golden cross on the s&p 500 is attained at 1318. >> news flash. >> okay. no hindenberg and golden cross. big news coming up, could be. >> and we will talk about what the markets could see on the final day of the month. >> i forgot, it is mark-up day and guys have to make the numbers, and illegal, but difficult to nail. >> and still more "squawk on the
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street" just ahead. coming up, how many stocks can you talk about, and how fast can you do it? see if you can do it better than cramer, six stocks in 60 seconds when "squawk on the street" continues. ♪ [ male announcer ] for our town. [ dog barks ] for our country. ♪ for our future. ♪ this isn't just the car we wanted to build. it's the car america had to build. ♪ the extended range electric chevy volt. from the heart of detroit to the health of the country, chevy runs deep.
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here is a look at the s&p 500 shy of the 131, but it was there for a moment and that is a golden cross which is a technical indicator of which the moving day crosses above the 200 day showing acceleration and portending a positive six months. >> it has happened 20 times since 1962, and the market gained 1.4% in the next three months which is why we are watching this carefully. i believe it has to close with the golden cross in order for it to be official. >> i am afraid that a lot of people say if it doesn't that it forebodes another leg down. >> you mean a death cross? >> well, these are things that are beyond my kin, but i know that people follow it. >> yes, it is true. simon hobbs does. is he down on the floor? >> well, i'm an avid follower of
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the golden cross and if not today tomorrow, and all will be well. and coming up on the next hour, we will drill down on the exxon mobile earnings and it is a pivotal day in the white house and private equity executive will weigh in on florida's key gop presidential primary and what will $60 million buy you in the sunshine state? we will take you into florida's luxury listings, and you will agree, guys, that there is nothing, and no greater guilty pleasure than having a look inside of other people's homes that are for sale and that is what we will do in the next hour. >> and real estate porn. >> i was not going to say it. >> well, time for the six in 60 stocks. edwards lifesciences is one of the best performing so far. >> many analysts hate this in forensic surges and the data they put it out. thoracic surges say it is the
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right valve. >> pep boys failed to hold the benchmark. >> so long. >> you didn't like them? >> no. >> and nike upgraded to buy from nargis. >> they have momentum, i like them both. >> and now down to golden? >> people play with the fertilizers and it is ridiculous. if you like fertilizers you like them all. >> and sonoma jefferies and potash? >> not the right volv. >> and dick sporting goods added to the new compression stocks. >> if you like those compression stocks, go to dicks. >> and if there was any reacceleration from the lousy december and discounting of the holiday period. >> i am doing a series right now about the companies who are -- people spending fortunes on big things like boats. and i have to tell you they 'm very encouraged that there is an echelon of people who are mostly
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midwest and not east or west, but who are just spending like mad on big tickets and not factored in, because there are not a lot, but i have been focusing on them all week and the spending ises a gresive. >> interesting. >> and we should note that this is a new high on apple. >> oh, boy. >> ep y, it is. >> unstoppable. >> 457.55 is record high on shares of apple and before 45 454.55 and fresh high. and morgan stanley had a bullish report out from katie huber ti who laid out the bear case and the bull case for the iphone uptick in china and china mobile coming online, and they suggested that 10 eps needs to be added and $55 price. >> and fiscal year, and one thing about apple, last four weeks of the year, i come back to it, where they basically broke out of android and head to head and looks like they left android in the dust.
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very important. >> and last week the volume of the s&p 500 would have been negative as it makes markets look differently than they are. >> and we will look at the the large numbers and apple can't continue it, and they are a juggernaut, and we have a new series of products, and i think it goes higher. >> and tonight? >> dominion, on tonight, because they want to export nat gas and it is a small part of the conference call and i will bring it out tonight. >> we will see you tonight. we have consumer confidence on the other side of the break. stay tuned.
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welcome back the "squawk on the street." january consumer confidence from the confidence board disappointing. this is way below expectations, 61 61.1. if you look at the last rate of 64.8 that was upgraded by .3, and we fail by .7 by this headline number and if you look at 61.1, that is the weakest confidence going back the november when you had 55.2, but the issue is that we jumped last month from the 55.2 up to 64.5 and that was revised. so it does not really break out of the recent range and to put it in perspective the recent high for this series has been
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72, and that is basically a year ago in february. we also want to put a final tombstone on the chicago purchasing managers survey in light of the abls jobs report the employment component was lower. back to you, melissa lee. >> thank you, rick santelli. we have a big panel on board to help us parse out the data. and now look at the shares plunging 30% as warnings that radioshack will slide, but they say it is all sprint's doings. according to the ceo of radioshack why the results have missed. this is by the way, a three-h year low on the stock. $7.33 right now. >> as you heard, consumer confidence and case-shiller out this morning and the chicago pmi as well and looking forward to jobs friday here. and we here at "squawk on the street" made a nifty way to make
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the friday's non-pharm number for interesting. >> do you think you have what it takes to wip a mug, an autographed mug? who knows how much it will be worth when the "squawk on the street" gang signs it. >> awesome. >> tripled the value. >> sign it again. lit go up. >> if you missed the non-pharm number, it is all yours. tweet the guess@squawkst with hash tag of nail the number. and watch friday to see if if you are the lucky number. >> well, they are excited to win the mug, too. those guys. >> well, we are used to giving away cars like maceratis, and times are tough, and we are not into the showy displays of wealth so it is a mug from the heart. you know what i'm talking about? >> yeah. we should make it clear, too, that it is not "price is right"
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rules burk the closest, over or uner d but the closest. >> and you can't use the mug either, because presumably the signatures will come off. >> well, we use special ink that won't come off, but no guarantees on that one. >> maybe cramer will have written a secret stock tip on the cup or something like that. well, it is one way to keep things interesting. talk about the friday's jobs number and today's number as well. joining the panel is our chief economist with f.t. advisers and he has his own mug, and also rick santelli sticking around and d.b. as well. brian, a miss on the pmi and on case and on confidence -- what is going on? >> well, i think that pmi, and chicago pmi is still strong, so it is not indicative of any major weakness in the economy. consumer confidence in my perspective is one of the worst forecasting tools ever in the history of the man. i mean, if you go back to 2007,
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2008, it was at record highs and totally missed the recession of '08 and '09 and lately it has been really low even though the economy has been growing again. i will put my forecast in for the mug. i'm at 142,000 on jobs this month. >> 142. so, but, does the confluence of weaker data today make you change your overall case? >> no. none of the data today is a driver of economic forecasts. there is three things that are real positive from my perspective. number one, the fed is easy. i mean everybody knows that. we don't have double-dips when the fed is easy. number two, productivity is very, very strong. we have the cloud, the smartphone, the tablet, and these things are very positive lifting the economic activity and number three, i think that it is really good news that we have gridlock in washington right now, and spending is sort of flat, and as a result, the
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government is slowly but surely everyday shrinking as a size of gdpp so when i put those three things together, i'm positive and optimistic on the economy. >> josh, those who use any weak day the and saying, look, it backs up what we saw in the gdp which is that everything is a big inventory bill, and don't believe it. >> well, there is a little bit to it, but i agree that the economy is not in danger of. ing back into the recession or anything like that, but the issue is how strong is the rekov ri, and the problem is that the recovery has been middling at best, and that is not good enough, because we dug such a big hole in the resession idled so many resources and running at underutilization that we need the stronger growth to repair that damage. the stronger growth is coming, because we are under the headwinds of the bursting of the credit and the housing bubble. we have housing hang and
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consumers who need to repair balance sheets and credit restraints and so forth, but the good news is that the head winds are gradually diminishing, because some progress has been made in repairing the problems, but i don't think that we are are all of the i wa through that, and up till we get through that more fully, the normal sort of recovery dynamics that propel us to much stronger growth are going if be, you know a little slow in coming. >> josh, has the fed failed? has the monetary policy failed? >> no, not failed, but had it not been for what the fed has dope and the easier fiscal policy, i think that the economy would be weaker still, but the problem is not the inefficacy of policy, but it is a testament to the how strong the headwinds are that are holding us back. >> and brian, can i pick up in your note, because you say that your are forecasting sustainable growth the, and how can you see
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3.5% inflation with the growth? >> well, simon, one of the keys is my personal history. i graduated from college in 1981, and the unemployment rate was 10.8%, and inflation was 12%. this idea that you can't have inflation with unemployment high or at some level, it is just not true. history proves it wrong, and the reason that we have inflation is that the federal reserve is easy. you asked if the federal reserve has failed, but they haven't. they have created inflation, and that is what we are seeing. >> why does the fed disagree with you, and they believe we are going to bounce below the 2.5% that has been set and that sim por is important for a lot of people. >> well, the fed said that there would be inflation in 1970s, too, and they have a dual mandate to bring down the une unemployment, and they also believe that their mandate is to fix the housing crisis, and it
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is not, but they believe it, so their job is to keep the inflation down, but right now, they are focused on the growth numbers, so they are going to ignore anything on the inflation side, and anyone who says inflation is a problem will, they are going try toig for tin, because they want the growth side back. i think it is a mistake and the whole dual mandate is fraught with potential for major inflation. we saw it in the '70s and i'm worried that the fed is making the same mistake today. >> and brian, rick santelli here, and i know that the students love you and you have taught a lot of classes on economics over the last several years and it blows my mind a wa to agree with you on what you just said about the fed, but when you listed the three things that make you happy about the economy in the future, you include the fed on that list. why do you grade on such a low curve. >> right. this is interesting, rick, because milton freedman taught
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us that an easy fed over the next 6 to 9 months will cause higher growth, but then over the next two to three years will cause higher inflation, so what i am arguing here is that over the short to medium term in an easy fed is a positive for the economy. in other words, it will lift growth even though we will pay a price later on down the road, and the history shows me that when the fed is easy the market goes up. >> and i'm missing something. let's drill down on the growth. how is the fed creating growth? and i think that the operative word to put in front of growth is sustainable growth, and sugar buzzes just e create debt. >> well, this is interesting, because i think that an economist's job is -- well a bunch of jobs that we have, but one of them is to try to discern how much of the growth is fake, and in other words caused by the fed, you know, as artificial, and how much is real, caused by productivity and new technologies, and right now, i think that probably 70% of the
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growth -- >> well, the fed does not create new technology, that is private sector. >> no, i did not say that the fed created it, but there are real technologies, and part of the growth we are seeing today is driven by apple and linkedin and facebook. >> and private sector and why are you arguing for the fed as a positive, that is where i am losing you. >> i thought i have explained myself, rick. >> i don't think so. >> the fed can be a short-term positive, but i am not saying it is a good thing, but i am saying as an inves to, hey, i want to jump on board, and the commodities or the stock or the growth, because the fed when they lower the interest rates and print money at first, it causes growth, whether it is real or not, i don't care, but when the stock market goes up, i make money, and that is what i am benefiting on here, and the fed is going to give me a chance to make money. >> we need to care less about the short term and writing long term equities and people who want to get a check every other
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week. >> well, rick, let me come back to this, long-term, and easy fed policy creates inflation and problems and long-term issuing the debt and going into massive debt by the government creates problems, but it does not mean that we can't grow in the short-term. if you are always focusing on the long-term, you are playing more politics and economics and not being helpful to the investors in the short-term. the stock market is up even though obama is president, and the stock is market up even though the fed is making inflationary mistakes and the point is that i want the investors to be able to make money in the market, and if it is going up, because the fed is easy, i'm going to tell them to be in the market. >> well, today, the market is down. probably due in part to that data which we came right off of the 1318 back to 1312. gentlemen, thank you very much. rick, we will see you later. >> thanks. we will check in with cnbc's hampton pearson on the congressional budget office
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outlook. hampton? >> well, some gasoline on the fire that you have is had going on in the last few moments, the congressional budget office report updating the estimates of the 10-year forecasts for the budget and the economy. first the forecast for the deficit on the current fiscal year. they are forecasting $1.1 trillion deficit and 7% gdpp and 2% below last year's deficit and cbo forecasting the average debt 1.5% deficit based on the current law, and including the expiration of the bush payroll taxes and the current temporary tax cut until the end of the year, but they have an alternative fix seeing the federal deficit going higher with 4% of to gdp with the debt held by the public climbing to 94% over the next decade. the highest since world war ii. this year, federal revenues were up $140 billion or 6% over last year and projecting to increase
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by $220 billion or 10% this year, and the spending in 2012 is up 4% to $3.6 trillion and less than the 7% rate for the previous ten years so says the cbo. cbo bottom line saying that the tax and spending policies made by lawmakers in the next few years are absolutely critical. looking at the cbo's snapshot of the economy. its highlights are a slow recovery for the next two years and says that real gdp is up 2% this year, and 1% next year and personal consumption expenditures up 1.2% this year, and 1.3% in 2013, and unemployment rate above 8% for the next two years and dropping to 7% by 2015. the economic wild cards in all of this, the faster u.s. growth and perhaps a positive or the possibility of worsening banking and fiscal problems in europe. back to you. >> all right. hampton pearson, thank you so much. meantime exxon posting better than expected fourth
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quarter yields, but is this poising us for 2012? and is the stronger commerce sales a better stock buy than fed fedex? we have answers in just two minutes. [ male announcer ] we know you don't wait until the end of the quarter to think about your money... ♪ that right now, you want to know where you are, and where you'd like to be. we know you'd like to see the same information your advisor does so you can get a deeper understanding of what's going on with your portfolio. we know all this because we asked you, and what we heard helped us create pnc wealth insight, a smarter way to work with your pnc advisor, so you can make better decisions and live achievement.
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47 minutes into the trading and we are clinging on to the positive territory. if you have joined us, 1318 on the s&p is what everybody is focusing on wlnd it krozs the 200 day, and a bullish sign if we can gain it and hold it to the close. and oil is doing reasonably well on the commodities trading at $100.53 and exxon is profiting from that. we will talk about that in a moment, and now on the other "squawk" stories, rising to eight years high in eight years unemployment climbed to 9eight
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year high. and apple importantly this morning announcing that john broward will jo -- browett who dixons, a european retailer, and we will talk about that pedigree in a few minute's time. >> intel reporting better than expected quarterly product boosted by lower costs, and u.s. steel reported a weak demand in europe causing a lower profit, and also a $35 price target in ziler. >> we will get the analyst reactions to both companies report reports. first kick it off to exxon who is trading on the backside of the report. and phil weiss is joining us on the cnbc newsline. thank you for being with us. >> thank you for having me. >> it looks like the downstream
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revenues is largely spiked given what we have heard from the other refiners in the earnings season. >> right. to me, there is negative reaction to the stock performance is due to production short, and then in the u.s., as opposed to other companies exxon's natural gas volumes are increasing, and liquid decreasing. >> but you are largely positive on the stock saying it is a relatively safe long-term investment, but at the same time the xto deal has not paid off and you mentioned the natural gas production is going up, but this is not the time to be gassier as opposed to oilier, and why not favor another name instead of exxon? >> well, if i am looking at the sector, while i think that exxon is undervalued, if i were to choose, i would take chevron over exxon, because of the profile, but think they exxon is undervalued as well. >> and in terms of how exxon performs in the rising wti environment, you say it normally lags? >> yes, that is correct.
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especially when we look at the production mix being more oriented towards the gas, and that is more leveraged and the oil prices are going to do better. >> it is staggerering -- good morning -- staggering the money that rex stillerton is going to spend on the capital expenditure by the end of the year. are you comfortable where they are in russia and the arctic exploration and more details next month over $3 billion and given how many of the oil companies have been badly burnt in russia? >> well, it is a risk, but there is a question na all of the oil companies face is access to resources, so sometimes you have to be willing to take a risk for the potential rewards, tland are potential for a lot of hydrocarbons in russia and it is worth the risk when you have a balance sheet like exxon does. >> thank you, phil. phil weiss or argu sushs. >> thank you. we are going to do u.p.s. right now. >> okay. >> as promised we will talk u.p.s., and the earnings out
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this morning and the company delivering a higher quarterly profit and forecasting higher 2012 earnings and joining us is jeff kauffman at stern agee, and good to have you with us. >> good morning. >> and the question always goes to fedex or u.p.s. at this point, and what is your view? >> well, you know, we tell people to buy both and it is like trying to differentiate coke and pepsi and some people do right now, but really, talking about two global brands taking the market share in every market of the world, and they are both growing and returning cost to capital and we favor both stocks, but we prefer u.p.s. to fedex on the stronger cash flow and slightly more attractive valuation. >> now that we are out of holiday season what are the catalysts for either of the stocks for that matter? >> well, you do have a shrinking post office, and you have both companies gaining in the e commerce world domestically and
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you have both of them taking a larger share of the european and asian market, and a move toward greater shipping of small packages and where we saw the greatest gains were intra-european shipments which were up mid single digits as well as the e commerce which was up 15% so both companies are generating better gains and inflation plus pricing, and returning cost to capital and dropping the cash to the bottom line for the shareholders. >> do you have to take a fundamental view of where we are going with oil and particularly in thinking of tensions with iran in order to hold the stock? >> no, not really. most investors would be surprised but energy stock are less than 5% of the p&l, and it is labor costs and volumes and yields that drive it, and lower energy exposure ak chactually i parcel companies than truckerers and in many cases rails. >> all right. jeff we want to leave it there. jeff kauffman at sterne agee.
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thank you. and now we will talk about the sunshine state smackdown when we come back. a risk on rally in the new year, but should you continue to invest in the emerging markets? stick around, and we are back after a short break. 40 elections in 2012 around the world and governments will do their best to make it through the elections and maybe in 2013 you should be panicked. >> you are going into a forced profile that i don't want to be in. >> it is made clear that at times we are trying to force the people to make movements, but we can't control how that happens. >> facebook is continuing to dominate the display ad market, and a all of that from the profiles narrows the targeting -- >> cnbc, capitalize on it.
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independent research fund. good morning. >> good morning, simon. >> what is going on in brazil? >> well, they are benefiting from at love othings and they have tremendous wage growth and that is something we don't have around here and interest rates are low. so a lot buoying it. >> and last year there was a lousy year in the emerging markets, and lousy. >> absolutely lousy and that had do do with the global sentiment and a high beta trade and this year buoyed by the oil as well and the energy straight up through the roof. they are also having an m&a boom, and the consumer stocks through the roof. >> and does brazil stand out from the page of the financial times and the company section and they are talking about the currencies of the mexican peso up, and brazil up, and india, and the turqikish lira. >> well, if you think of the risks, they are still in europe, and grant it you have the rtlo
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who have cut the -- that is the cheap money of half a trillion pumped into the banks. >> yes, that is a reason to i is a we have cut the tail risks there, but eastern europe is tied to that and anything wrong with europe is going to reverberate there. and china and india talking about a lot of exports that require, you know, growth in europe. well, that not going the happen. and latin america is a little more protected from that, because if you look at what is going to happen in brazil, you might see double-digit falls in exports, but also in imports, so they are covered on the trade side. >> and the valuations? >> reasonably cheap right now and trading over ten times earnings right now, and trailing eight, almost nine times earnings forward and that is cheap. >> regina thank you for coming. regina sanchez there. thank you. >> and thank you, simon. florida is home to the largest
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electorate, and we have a private equity executive weighing in ahead of the key battleground the night. and apple is appointing john browett as the new vice president of retail, and does he have what it takes for the titan's global push? with all the opinions about stocks out there, how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason
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here are the stories we are squawking about. the consumer confidence ip dex is down from january falling 61.1. and new all time highs for apple and autozone. and the toy maker mattel has a reason to be excited because of the 52-week highs, which is the biggest s&p 500 gainer. >> and the sectors are higher and you can see that we have inched to the positive side, but it is a hug of the positive side. but you can see down here it is more evenly spaced here on the nyse, and looking at the nasdaq
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where we stand there, and slightly more evenly spaced as you can see. >> and back over the david faber for the next nyse euro deal, and they are going to backup this antitrust deal? >> well, carl, the deal as we know as we spoke with duncan last week and likely to be voted down tomorrow. it could be extended a week, and that is a possibility, but in terms of the commission likely again that you will have it go away tomorrow. the reason i'm mentioning it now is because there is a lot of chatter out to when the deal timely does get terminated with a clear termination will you get enormous one-time buyback of stock from the new york stock exchange regardless of whether jim cramer likes the buybacks or not? but from what i am hearing that is not likely, because the stock has found a decent level and in fact moved up a little bit since the demise of the deal looked likely. it had been down sharply as it traded along with deutsche
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boerse, given what has happened over the last year. they have $500 million left on the buyback they will reinstate. the company will report earnings on february 10th, but those are out there looking for the one-time buyback may be disappointed again. again, they are expected to reinitiate or restart the buyback that was in place prior to the deal but we will be watching tomorrow morning and if we do hear it will be 6:00 a.m. given it is out of europe. back the you. >> but isn't there more money around than that? more than a $1 billion to the dividend? well, you are right, simon. and that is going to be around as well, and also giving rise to something that you quickly apportion to one-time buyback, but it is not at least at this point what i am hearing from people close to the company. again, they will give us the lay of the land on the 10th of february when we see the nu
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numbers. they will generate a lot of cash, and they will reinstitute the buyback, but it is not clear they will be using the money for the special dividend to immediately pay down or buyback shares. >> all right. david faber, thank you very much, joining us from headquarters. meanwhile, the republican candidates do unto the wire in florida. the polls close tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time, and we will bring in camille who supports mitt romney, and sarah fagan who is a cnbc contributor and served as white house political contributor under george w. bush. great to see you this morning. >> great to see you. >> and over the weekend, gingrich was compared to one of the character s s in the horror movie who is impossible to kill off? >> yes, they compared him to "the blob" and just keeps on comi coming. the governor will have a great night. it is going to be terrific, and he is going to win by a wide margin. he is going to win in a state
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which is very representative of the entire country. i guarantee you that the white house is watching. there has not been one cent spent by the democrats, by the establishment democrats, by the white house on newt gingrich. all of the fire is directed towards mitt romney, which should tell you who they are most worried to come out of florida tonight. >> sarah, you look at the polls matching romney and the president in florida, not exactly positive for the white house. >> it is not positive. if you look at where the economy is, and your last commentator pointed out that consumer confidence is lower than expected and that is the single most important measure for whether the president will be re-elect odder not, and ee eee not. and if you look at consumer confidence, it is troubling for the white house. >> and what does it mean if
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gingrich is serious about stretching it out and going to the convention and if not taking rollny -- romney down, then a death of 1,000 cuts closer to the convention. >> well, tonight is not the most important number of whether newt can stretch it out, but it is what happens on march 6th on super tuesday with over 500 delegates awarded on march 6th including texas, his home state of georgia, and most of those are going to be rtionproportion and can newt rack up enough in the primaries to rack up enough delegates to force romney into april an potentially may to drag out the convention process. >> emil with that said, what is the spending tactic for the romney campaign going into march 6th and the point made that so much money spent in florida and you made the point that the democrats are focused on romney as the number one problem and not gingrich which hurts him and deflects some of the attention away from gingrich and on to the
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negative on the romney. >> well, of course, that is the white house's and the white house's strategy, but that is a legitimate point about super tuesday, but this is what the media is not talking about in terms of say take the next month. the governor is going to win florida. he is going to win it by a healthy margin, and then we have to go a month until super tuesday. in that month, there are seven contests in those, and if you just tick through the contests, this looks enormously favorably to mitt romney in michigan, his home state, and he is going to win. in minnesota, he should win, and he has tim pawlenty as one of the strongest surrogates. in maine, he won the last time around. in nevada, he is going to win, and he won the last time around.
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colorado, he is showing very strong -- and in arizona, he was a very strong second to john mccain who is now a big romney h supporter. so that the next month looks like, if i am newt gingrich, i'm thinking that this is a gauntlet that i have to get through for the next month, and the last point on that is that money is a critical factor. i can't overstate it enough. i believe that campaign has virtually no money, and maybe in debt, but notwithstanding that this fellow adelson in las vegas is pouring money. >> and he cannot coordinate. >> right. and he cannot coordinate and that is air money, but to literally transport a campaign on planes and buses, et cetera, for an entire month, if he does not have the money, that is going to be very hard. >> it is an expensive andplicat
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but what you said about those states as well as south carolina, we have to remember. >> and south carolina was in newt gingrich's backyard. florida has been a very open primary where all of the facts are beginning to come out. the fact that newt gingrich was paid $1.6 million by what some say is the epicenter of the housing crisis, freddie mac, and the last thing i would like the say is yesterday and the media is just beginning to pick up on this. yesterday, it was revealed that speaker gingrich on audio came out in favor of obamacare. it is quite striking actually in 2009, and he is beginning to be asked questions about that. so he is really becoming a convenient conservative as opposed to a true conservative. >> well, you can't say you are
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not confident. and we will see how many voters follow you and the candidate, emil. talk to you next time, and sarah, you too. >> thank you. >> thank you. and apple making big moves with the new appointment of john browett, and so as apple hits a new high, how will someone outside of the u.s. fair at the helmp? we will break it all down after this.
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knowledgeable customer service 24/7, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. tech titan apple naming john browett former ceo of uk's dixons as the head of the apple retail operation, and how will the foreign hire help apple in the global push? joining me is donna telse research group, and walter, i was trying to come up with what
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he came from which is a poor man's best buy, but that is not the reputation that this guy is trading on to get into apple here. >> not really, simon. greetings to you, as well. and john browett ticks all of the boxes. he is good looking and suave and ticks all of the boxes in erm thes of a great communicator and a very good salesman and he cut his teeth on a branding ad in knowing about a one-stop shop, and knows about customer relations and knows how to do it. he took over the job before leaving tesco before becoming the chief executive of tesco.com, and then he took over the dynasty of stanley comes and that was the chair of dixons which owns curries and sells things like refrigerators and cameras and all kinds of things
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like that, and dixons was the basically technology side that didn't cover their own line and also pc world, everything to do with the computers, and he ticks all of the boxes, but unfortunately people forgot to remind him that poor old john clare had missed the boat and everything changed. so he spent the last four years there as chief executive downsizing dixon's business. >> not a great situation, and dana, do you believe he is up to the job in first glance. >> in first glance from what we have heard, extremely strategic to remodel the stores at dixons to bring it back to life and numbers are taking hold and he has big shoes to hold and the apple product essentially sells itself. and fitting into the culture is key. >> well, dana, when you look at the landscape of other retail ceos and other senior retail executives out there who might have been up for this job or perhaps the talent bench at apple, itself, are you surprised that apple went to the uk and
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granted one of the biggest sellers of apple products outside of apple itself, but to go to somebody who has run this big box store? >> yes, it is definitely came as a surprise. and the groundwork that we have done, the search was done very quietly, and given that apple is opening up more stores overseas than what they are opening in the u.s., they probably wanted that specialized skill set, but it did come as a surprise. >> and we believe of course, david, it was the result of them doing doles with apple to sell the ipad and the exclusive deals that he clearly made an impression on the u.s. giant. >> yes, and made an impression on -- >> absolutely. >> sorry, david. >> yes, sorry. absolutely, no question about it. he is replacing ron johnson and ron johnson who is going off to be the ceo of jcpenney would have run the ruler over him, and a long drawn out process, and this must have been an impressive interview, because he understands where it is coming
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from and currently 360 apple stores around the world and 40 new ones to be opened in the next 18 months or, so and most of them overseas and majority of them in china, and he has that international flavor, because he had to do deals with all kinds of producers and manufactures and many of them from japan and also from taiwan and korea and everywhere. >> nice to talk to you, david, and dana, you as well. >> interest hag the market cap of apple above exxon at $22 billion. we will see how long apple holds onto the lead. straight ahead this morning, we are heading into the sunshine state in honor of the key primary, and is the real estate market timely coming back after the housing crisis? before we go, take a look at the top four most expensive homes sold in miami last year. curtain lane, and valencia drive. >> shame you can't see inside of the houses as well, because that is when it really gets good. >> we will unveil the number one
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take a look at sears holding.
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this on the back of a headline from reuters saying they may stop lending to sears suppliers. so again, that rumor is out. cit may stop lending to sears suppliers and taking the strom down by 4.5% right now. sears is a huge gainer so far this year. >> second biggest on the s&p so far under netflix. >> it's a short squeeze and according to data of data explores, short interest on sears flat over the same time period. interesting there. down 4.7%. meantime, another stock. radioshack, disappointing fourth quarter forecast. let's get more on the story and bring in michael lassetr at ubs. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> they said aside from the sprint problem, business is good. is that the way you see it, as well? >> i don't think that's the whole part of the story. i think the issue with what they're seeing is the margins
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hit from having more apple products, which they don't make a lot of money on. more of the volume through target, a lower profit channel for them and intensely promotional factor. they can't change their cost structure fast enough. >> so if they can't change fast enough, what's the end game for a stock like radioshack? does it get taken out in a fashion? it was talking when the stock was in the 20s and didn't happen. >> good point but we're in a very different time. the margin structure of the business changed dramatically since then. when's the end game? >> i think they need to make bold moves and the challenge is that they're having fewer resources, whether it's from their margin or from their cash flow to allow them to make the bold moves. i think they need to take a fresh look at the merchandising, the store layout and until we see that happen, stock's going to stay under a lot of pressure. >> under a lot of pressure.
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all right. michael, we have to leave it there. thank you. >> thank you. >> we appreciate it. michael lasser at ubs. we promised to sold shoe you the most expensive real estate in miami. eyes down, melissa. >> i can't look until it's revealed? >> 13 star island drive. you can't really see -- it's a fantastic drive. >> the drive is so long to get to the house. >> typical of a $25 million property w. the primaries in florida, the state hit hard by the bursting of the local real estate bubble, luxury properties seem to be bouncing back. danny hershman seems to specialize in that. i'm told to start with a blinding $60 million property in indian creek. >> absolutely. good morning, simon. thanks for having me today. >> so talk us through this
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property. >> sure. so 3 indian creek is a piece of art. it's a masterpiece. the property e's located on a private island. the property is 30,000 square feet on an 80,000 square foot lot and magnificent. >> what's happening generally to prices in the area at this level? at this scale. >> we're seeing a very different trend in the high end luxury market, particularly in miami beach. there's very little inventory. we have a lot of international buyers. we are seeing russian, bravillian buyers come in to the market and buy the ultra luxury properties. as the inventory has gone down, the prices have absolutely increased and we are seeing a very high demand for properties, particularly from this international buying pool. >> and presumably, that will continue. >> yes. we believe so. with the limited amount of inventory and the high demand, it is not just the international buyers. we are seeing buyers move down
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from new york, second home purchases of california, canada. but the ultra luxury properties, the international buying pool. 60% of the purchases in miami beach are cash purchases and high end they're all cash deals and see -- >> just show us one more, danny, if you would. inside the house. >> i'm sorry? >> can we see another property, just mention one more to us. >> sure, sure. we have an absolutely spectacular property at 182 balbay drive, located on the tip of the island in a private guarded island. we have 40-foot ceilings in the entryway and magnificent. the highest end finishes and one of the properties in miami we're having high interest from a wide pool of international buyers. >> do they stay on the market for a long time? they look unlived in. >> right. actually, the 3 indian creek property is not lived in. the bal bay property we have
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owners there but the properties on the super high end, you know, it's six months to a year but there's a high level of interest and just matching the perfect buy we are the perfect home. >> danny, good to meet you. >> simon, thank you so much. have a great day. >> quite nice to go down and -- >> very nice. >> check out properties. >> you have to be a qualified -- i would imagine you have to be a qualified buyer. >> no, really. i went you to take me around and show me $30 million properties. okay. >> oh really? oh, okay. >> you try it, simon. that will be your assign. tweet time. in light of the radioshack weakening of business we asked you which retailer gives you the worst shopping experience and why. we've got answers coming up. >> it would be a cheap weekend, though, wouldn't it? [ male announcer ] for our town. [ dog barks ] for our country.
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all right. melissa, what's coming up tonight on "fast"? >> amazon's earnings and tracking a stock's moves. we'll do it tonight with netflix, jc penney's and wendy's. >> thank you very much. markets close to the lows for
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the day. here's what you might have missed earlier this morning. >> welcome to hour three of "squawk on the street." here's what's happening so far. >> we're going to continue to focus on those brands that are not impacted by patent expiration, move the pipeline forward. see our way through this period and resume growth. >> i think it's going to be closer than a lot of people anticipating because i don't believe that the polls are totally reflective of the surge that's going on with the newt gingrich campaign. >> i see a lot of this january as being that companies and guided down and the numbers come out. we come out and say that's a disappointment. it is not a disappointment against the whisper. this is one of the seasons where the whisper is lower than the printed. >> a way to go, buy things that plug in to something. the guy knows something. >> usually. >> yeah. >> mundane things, low margin things. >> may not be enough to survive. >> housing prices continue to
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decline. while there's been some improvement in the picture overall there's a lot of foreclosures out there. >> opening bell with the s&p 500 at the top of the screen. >> january consumer confidence from the conference board disappointing. 61.1. this is way below expectations. >> i think this whole dual mandate is a -- is fraught with potential for major inflation and we saw it in the '70s. i'm worried the fed's making the same mistake today. >> good morning. welcome to the third hour of "squawk on the street." let's gate check on the markets for this tuesday morning. the dow, s&p, nasdaq awfully close to the lows of the session after misses on important economic data, consumer confidence, chicago mpi, big winners thank the earnings. mattel, tyco and h & p with
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earnings and nice gains. a biggest loser, best buy down sharply today, more than 6%. apple is trading at a new all-time high at $455. its market cap well exceeding the tune of $22 billion. time for the road map today. the polls are open in florida after losing the gingrich in south carolina, mitt romney looking for for a decisive victory tonight. we'll go live to the sunshine state and check on the standings. the court battle comes to an end. dom drapkin has a look at the fight with ron perelman. less than an hour away from the close in europe. we'll see how it affects our money at home. and we're just days away from super bowl xlvi and all of those ads. we'll bring you a sneak peek of one of the most anticipated commercials of the weekend. all that and more is coming up
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in this hour. first, though, the capital markets editor looking at how the fed's rate policy affecting pension funds and i imagine not a good way. >> good morning. our friends did some exceptional work trying to quantify this and worth revisiting. because again, the pensions are challenged right now. if you take a look in terms of this picture shows you. you see the deficits, projected deficits as a result of what's happened since 2008. and you'll look in terms of liability increase and where they stand. if you think about when's happened since 2008 and now with the fed, if we take a look at the next chart, the fed has done with the short term rates in terms of where bond yields are, it should not be a surprise that reaching for returns in the fixed income market are close to impossible. look at the last chart and does a great job of showing you where things are. this is the historical funded status. this is the sort of baseline in the middle there. if you take the most optimistic
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assumptions, that's a 22% return in the equity markets. given where fixed income rates are you're 90% funded at the average pension fund. the most likely baseline scenario, 81% and the pessimistic assumption at 73%. 3 out of 4 pension fund would not be fully funded given where returns are and that's after we had the big snap back in the equity markets of 2008. bottom line here -- further confirmation that those who say what the fed did last week was essentially put in pension fund managers and in consultants this advise the pension funds, they have essentially made them force asset aloe case in to private asset. because you can't get the returns. you're essentially doing something that many people feel is not really the job of the federal reserve bank. >> although there are those who support the fed who would say that's exactly the point. right in. >> well, again, is the federal
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reserve -- is monetary policy supposed to force asset allocation? what that chart says to me is pension managers who for decades tried to have a balanced portfolio simply can't get back to being fully funded given interest rates. i'll let the others decide. >> the hunt for yield. >> yep. >> fair or unfair. that's what it's on. >> yep. >> we'll talk more about it in a bit. rick santelli probably has a thought about that and the data points of today, rick. >> you know, i like to continue to watch europe. i know many viewers, listeners on satellite radio are fed up with europe but there's big lessons to be gleaned here and the biggest is objectivity interrupted. how many times have we seen economists globally and many domestic saying austerity is a killer in europe. showing the economies that austerity is just a bad thing?
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but really, much of the austerity hasn't been implemented yet so what they're writing about is how the economies of europe are adjusting to the notion of austerity and they could write volumes about that but what about the volumes they need to write about a similar topic here? and that is what's going on in the u.s. economy. things like taxes. these same economists will not write about the notion that people make adjustments based on lack of good tax policy. that's off limits. what about sugar buzz versus growth buzz? we have constantly -- i was with a great economist today discussing this topic. and when it comes to the fed, independent research cannot break down that a sugar buzz is sustainable in to a growth buzz but the debt buzz, that sticks around. last but not least, with jobs tomorrow, friday, go to the labor of bureau statistics.
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all private employment in the u.s. notice that in january of '08 it was around 115,600,000. today, 110 million. i rest my case. back to you. >> yep. interesting projections from cbo today, as well, on unemployment in this country. rick, thanks. it is primary day in florida. some polls have romney with a very nice margin of victory, perhaps. but what's the picture on the ground? amman javers is live on the ground in florida. >> reporter: it's pushing 80 here today. not a bad assignment. i didn't have to go to manchester or iowa. take the florida trip. the voters here in tampa woke up to this headline in their newspaper this morning. the headline is "today, florida decides." and that's, carl, a headline to pretty much be in the newspaper in november of 2012, as well as today. because florida is so important
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in the general election as well as in the primary. in this primary it looks like it might be mitt romney's to lose. he is up by as much as 15% in some polls. going in to today. and they had a very vigorous absentee campaign on the romney side. nonetheless, newt gingrich faced a scrum of reporters this morning and asked how long he thinks this campaign, this primary campaign, against mitt romney is going to go. it's very noisy there but take a listen to what he had to say. >> how close is this to being over. >> i'd probably say six months. >> six months? >> june or july. >> mr. speaker -- >> unless romney drops out. >> so newt gingrich is waiting until mitt romney drops out. that's opposite of what most political analysts expect here in florida. we'll watch things until the polls close. two different time zones here in florida, 7:00 and 8:00 p.m. and
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final results by 8:00 p.m. the earliest to make a call eastern/standard time tonight. carl? >> through the results tonight, we are looking forward to the michigans and nevadas of the world. >> reporter: yep. >> any signs at all for gingrich to do anything but continue to plow forward? >> reporter: i think he'll keep going. he is living off the land. spending money as fast as it comes in. talking to the romney people here in florida, they're saying they're confident about a nationwide race going forward because they have the organizational advantage. that's their spin today going in to the rest of the campaign, carl. >> enjoy the weather while you can. >> reporter: we will. now to an interesting apartment sale in new jersey. jon corzine's new jersey apartment is on the market for nearly $3 million. kayla tayshi has a look inside. good morning.
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>> reporter: good morning. if you have $2.9 million burning a hole in the pocket, you'll find former ceo hudson river penthouse, two bedrooms, four bathrooms and floor to ceiling floors of the hudson river and manhattan skyline. he bought it in hoboken's towers while serving as governor in 2008. he paid $3.26 million. not $3.6 million as i misread on air yesterday. the property does require $38,000 in taxes. on real estate the hudson county tax assess sos quoted just over $822,000. of course, the bankruptcy of the futures brokerage futures forced him out as ceo and in to the hot seat. carl, money customers themselves tried to put corzine on the hook for to get it back. it's unclear if this is a so-called capital raise for corzine.
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>> hard to find people that predict to have an active political life going forward, but if he did, it would have ramifications on the political life, yes? >> reporter: of course. you need residency. corzine was u.s. senator representing new jersey from 2001 to 2006. at which time he was elected governor of new jersey. he said in an interview in 2010 right after defeated by chris christie, i doubt very seriously i'll ever be on the elected side of things again but never say never. in august of 2011 they did issue bonds that stepped up in the case of corzine with a federal appointment and could be off the table, too, carl. >> kayla, thank you for that. when we come back, he's middle of the a brutal court battle with a former boss and former best friend. donald drapkin will join us live. we're back after a short break. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.
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some drama coming to an end this weekend. private equity giant ronald perelman ordered to pay $16 million for a breached separation agreement filed in '09. don is with gary on set for a cnbc exclusive interview. gary? >> thanks, carl. you couldn't help to pick up any newspaper over the last several weeks and read about the trial. how did this even get to the point of litigation? you were a founding partner, you were there for 25 years. helped create a tremendous value for the employees and the partners. how does something like this get to litigation in the first place? >> well, i was best friends with ronald for 25 years. i wasn't a founding partner but i was vice chairman. you know, people have disagreements over contracts.
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can't resolve them. they have to go to trial. >> did you anticipate something like this would have been settled or did you think all along, you're a former lawyer, did you think it was going to ultimately have to go to a jury? >> well, i was hoping it would be resolved before, but i knew there was a possibility it could go to a jury, yeah. >> let's talk about that. goes to a jury last friday. you were in the courtroom. what were your thoughts when many times seeing a case like this if it does get to a jury, a lot of rich people suing each other. this is a jury of your peers. there's a concern that perhaps they're not going to look at the case and really judge it based on the merits. what was your experience like? >> well, there's always a danger when, you know, two rich folks are fighting in court and that the jury's not going to like that. but i have new respect for the judges and for the -- you know,
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we have all watched "law & order" 100 times. the jury really does pay attention and tries to understand what's going on. >> this is a four days of testimony, it was an 80-minute decision, deliberation by the jury. i know you were in the courtroom with your girlfriend. talk to me what it was like when you were sitting there waiting for a your to decide the merits of this case. >> well, i had two brilliant lawyer lawyers and they had said to me, the case went to the jury at 4:00. they said if the jury comes back before 5:30, you're a winnerment at maybe 5:26, they announced the jury was coming back. and i consider myself a fairly sophisticated guy. i'll be back next week to talk about real business stuff. that ten seconds when the judge
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says, madame foreman, have you reached a verdict, and looks at me, my heart was in my throat. i don't want to do that again. >> all right, good. as you mentioned, don, you were victorious. you have the money. will you use this -- >> not yet. >> you have gotten the award. you know, you continue to be an activist. you have a new firm. was the lessons learned through the experience change the way you set up employee contracts, bring in partners and grow a new company as a result of this experience? >> no. i was best friends with my partners at mcandrews for 25 years. i mourn the loss of that friendship and i hope i can re-establish the same kind of relationships at casablanca that i had at mcandrews. >> thanks so much. carl, as don mentioned, guest hosting next week on "squawk box "and talk about the targets he's looking at, new activist
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targets, spending some of that money and we have reached out to ron perelman for comments or follow-up related to this. we'll brit it if that's the case. >> great stuff. thank you very much and thanks to don for joining us today. quickly to the white house where the president's just done wrapping up a cabinet meeting, including the administrator of the small business administration and enjoying the first meeting with cabinet level status. focus of the meeting about start-ups and how to build the next apple or google. i guess we won't take a look at it but also includes the new chief of staff who, of course, taken over for bill daly, the outgoing chief of staff. a quick listen to what the president said at that meeting. >> my expectation and hope is that they'll get a bill together quickly, that they'll pass it and get it on my desk. i'll sign it right away and i would like to see the bill signed this year. >> and on a quick programming note, senator rubio of florida
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and governor scott joining us the kudlow report. we'll see how europe wraps up taking you there live. rick santelli is watching some numbers. we we'll see what trades he's got his eye on next. to think about your money...r ♪ that right now, you want to know where you are, and where you'd like to be. we know you'd like to see the same information your advisor does so you can get a deeper understanding of what's going on with your portfolio. we know all this because we asked you, and what we heard helped us create pnc wealth insight, a smarter way to work with your pnc advisor, so you can make better decisions and live achievement.
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rick's watching a bunch of numbers out today, some of the data which was somewhat disapointing, rick. i guess the question is whether or not that means bad things for the jobs number on friday. >> well, you know, carl, i've found today's numbers to be enlightning but i agreed with several of the guests, for example, if you look at confidence. i don't know that confidence is one of those indicators to garner a great stock trade or a great trade in the fixed income markets but with very little doubt you seem to see it do better before the holidays and i think that's what i'd like to kind of focus on. i believe fourth quarter gdp with the first look at last week, just below 3%, dove tails with the consumer confidence paints. paints a picture that humans get
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optimist nick front of holidays but maybe an economic hangover in the first quarter and fully suspect that the numbers bear that out. when it comes to jobs, carl, the toughest part about jobs is finding a dmon dencommon denomi cut down whether they're improving or not. it is unfortunate to be an election year because i think it's a topic there's not a lot of objectivity. >> yeah. within the confidence number, business conditions, the percentage of businesses, saw conditions good, went down. the percentage that saw things as bad went up. i guess we can solace in euro zone confidence at a high. >> the problem i see there is -- i know there's so many different speeds of economies of europe, but when i look at italy and spain and portugal, with regard to employment, when i look at france, when i look at germany's
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last quarter, you know, there still seems to be a conversation not only about employment but a long or short recession. >> yeah. it's the data that you can build it either way. thanks. european close coming up next. just a few moments to go until the closing bell over there sounds. we'll get it to you live and simon's breakdown. he has the glasses on. that's after a break. to follo. ew. seriously? so gross. ew. seriously? that is so gross. ew. seriously? dude that is so totally gross. so gross...i know. there's an easier way to save. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. between taking insulin, testing my blood sugar. is this part of your life? freestyle lite test strips? why, are they any beep! wow, that hardly needs
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let's talk about the close in the uk and across continental
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europe. a little more than a minute away. simon hobbs is here to walk us through not just the progress or lack thereof regarding greece, simon, but also the esm, the fiscal pact, participation in the next round of the rtro. there's a lot to watch. >> they took a positive look of it. the fact that we're down 60 points of tn dow is pulling those bosses back to the flat line as we come to the close in europe but they're still showing a positive move. let's have a top look at the top three. london, paris and frankfurt. there you go. that's the point to you. the fact that wall street's coming down is pulling them down in a contagion kind of way. the french banks were doing well before opening on wall street but they had the gains cut and heard intervention of the ucb on the portuguese market today, very thinly traded but a record high on the portuguese two-year so the ecb bringing those down and the ten-year, as well.
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10 million euros. 4.2 million euros it costs you to insure 10 million euros of portuguese debt. >> the european markets are closing now. >> so there's up from, costs clearly rising and the markets relatively thin. that's where we are at europe around the close. notice that spain down there on the left-hand side in negative territo territory. waiting for the big banks to come through more realizations on the property losses and, of course, moving to that end today. but of course, this is now the end of the month for europe. have a look at how those top three markets have traded during the course of the month. not the euro swiss franc. thank you very much. because of course, this is picking up, carl, importantly on the aftermath of that huge amount, almost half a trillion euros, of 1%, 3-year loans pumped in to the banks one month from today or one month's time.
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february the 28th. the second bout of that comes through and there's a debate. you saw it on the front page of the "financial times" of how much they'll take and the extent to which it bolsters the banks. some banks they're saying taking two to three times of before and reuters saying far less than the time before around. swiss franc, a sneak preview. the euro is falling now to levels we are not seen, carl, in four and a half months and we are very close, of course, to the sort of level one swiss e-20 at wisz ch the swiss national bank said they'll draw a line. we'll see. back to you. >> don't go too far, simon. i have pisany down here, tanned and rested from florida. >> research. key west -- >> for the public information.
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>> trust me. i know all about it. what happened in europe, but you know, the best performing sector -- best performing country was? guess. >> greece. >> greece. put up the board here. greece was up 17% in january! one trader quipped to me as goes january so goes pap day mos. the trader talk over the weekend shifting from private sector cuts in greece to public sector debt cuts. people saying the ecb and others taking cuts. they don't want to, they have to. more international assistance. 130 billion is still not enough. the numbers more and more elusive for greece here. the head of the euro group, prime minister of luxembourg said he would not disregard a public hair cut. we're drifting south.
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consumer confidence number at 10:00 took the winds out of the sails here and disappointment, a little bit of disappointment on exxonmobil's earnings and a big stock. weighing on the energy sector and the big energy names are all down and weighing on the dow there. down two points almost. that's 15 points in the dow. also weighing is some disappointment on the kay shiller home price index. they have been down here on disappointment. they were down i think 19 out of 20 cities they surveyed. down now three months in a row, overall index. finally, i want to note the merger. david mentioned this in the last hour. it is crunch time now. tomorrow the eu commissioners give their opinion, a yes or no. in theory they all vote and a majority vote. none of this actually happens. everything is done by consensus and announce presumably tomorrow thumbs up or thumbs down. >> hold on a minute. you expect that.
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if your competition commissioner comes through with hundreds and hundreds of staff after a huge amount of effort looking in to it and sayless we think we should vote against it, nobody else in the cabinet goes, oh no, i'm best friends with the nyse. let's let it go through. this is cuckoo land. if they think that the commission is going to back -- >> you are saying that the deal is dead? >> crazy talk. >> of course -- look. no one thinks the deal is going through at this point. even the optimists have 20% going through. i'm simply stating the fact. >> even the fact of raising it seems really very, very odd. >> i don't think it's odd at all. tomorrow, they'll have an option. they'll make an announcement presumably tomorrow. the nyse can appeal or the deal is over. by the way, i'm asked this several times. if it's blocked because of the anti-merger commentary, there is no break-up deal or fee. i've been asked that several
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times. that's not going to happen. >> can i just -- >> go ahead. >> one minute before we lose the european close here. may be a positive spin on what happened last night at the summit because the permanent bailout mechanism came through and merckel worked up a pact to keep her happy and the germans may give money but there's a political division with greece. they kept the greek prime minister behind after everybody left. he did the news conference at 1:00 in the morning and what is quite clear with the comments of sarkozy and merckel, to pay the bill that is are due in march. we have got a huge issue, a huge issue to surmount here, bob. i'm sorry i interrupted. >> that's a good point, simon. why it's important, it happened over the end of last weekend when there was talk of a
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budget -- germany floated the concept of a budget czar for greece, that blew everything up. they have to deal with the overall budget tear crisis. >> yeah. don't go away. i'm curious to know and gary, i'd like your opinion, why there's a lack of the month-end buying. is that absence -- >> wait. carl, that is a polite way of asking you why is there not window dressing and marking up, right? >> yeah. >> exactly. bob was talking earlier about some of the dispersion of those european markets and the junkier ones with the outperformance. i think there's anticipation for this to continue in to today but look at the chart. this may be part of the answer, carl. sometimes a picture is just worth a thousand words. right? bad use of a cliche. i was september this this morning. look at this. this is the most shorted stocks on the russell 3,000 names in our chart, the blue line.
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performance january. and then look at the russell 3,000. this was active hedge fund investors targeting those stocks with the biggest short positions to try to create the performance. does something like that last throughout the year? typically no. this shows you coming out of the gates after a very sub par performance year, boy, does this arctticulate perfectly in a picture the month of january. >> you're right. gary, let's address the volume issue. >> bob, bob, bob -- that is not correlation. >> the volumes are not picked up here. >> bob, bob? >> never picked up in january. people were thinking this was going to be an aberration. we'll see. it's not happened. this is a major problem. not seeing it towards the end of the month. 4 billion shares a day oo-- >> bob? >> yes, sir? >> the chart again. you mentioned about correlation. this is quite the opposite. what this is showing you is the
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stocks that were the most shorted names in the russell 3,000 essentially outperformed the russell 3,000, the index as a whole by 2 to 1 in the month of january and this is the opposite of there being a core related market. i read this chart to basically say big, active hedge funds targeted those in short positions knowing they can generate the alpha performance they have done here over the last month. >> so it's five there. just so we're reading this correctly, gary. five looks like where we're at in the russell 3,000. but nine -- looks close to nine. close to ten. >> right. >> that's your point. >> russell 3,000 up about 5% year to date through today. down a little bit this morning. those were the most shorted names in the russell 3,000. twice that performance. >> interesting. >> that's an amazing picture. thank you very much, tim, for sending me that. what happened over the last
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month. >> yeah. and then look at netflix and sears, some of the biggest gainers of the years. thanks, gary. let's bring in rick santelli in chicago to address the data here today, rick, or what's going on in europe. >> i think it's some of the data today but i also think it is europe. remember, you know, friday there was a lot of jubilation that we were just, you know, within a fingertip's top of getting the details on greece. and maybe that's true. but once again, we're fingertip touch away and i think the confidence, yes, maybe it's one of these feel-good indices but a markets reversal of earlier levels. chicago purchasing number, i'm enamored with manufacturing but like to see the service sector have the same type of numbers, bigger parts of the economy and i think when it comes to europe, when i hear the traders on this floor, the predominant question was, when's the next ltro? the long term repo operation.
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that's enough information, that's what i need. because we're replacing toxic paper with loans in europe and it's stabilize the situation but what comes next? back to you. >> all right. maybe another ltro. we'll see. thanks, rick. see you in a bit. bring in joe. hey, joe. good morning. >> good morning. how are you? >> good. heard the term short squeeze thrown around a lot. inventory stocking and the gdp number. is there a chance january was a ruse? >> call me simplistic. going back to last week and managing money and trading in the markets and you get apple with spectacular earnings and a federal reserve to tell you risk is on, we want you to go on risk assets but you can't get subsequent price appreciation, that has to make you somewhat cautious. this is an apple rally. this week, the market cannot extend upon what we had in terms of positive news on tuesday and wednesday of last week so we're
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back to utilities and health care. i think it's a very cautious environment. the reversal today in oil is interesting. if we lose oil and looks like we are, that's a big contributor and key appreciation. i think again you have to be cautious and watch out for tomorrow. yes, it is lows potentially taken out. >> pretty decisive turn at 1318 this morning, although we are also hearing the technicians say, every time a january is up 4% plus, the year is up. often by double digits. do you trust it? >> absolutely not. i mean, this is a new world. it's a new paradigm. traders are navigating through so much uncertainty. we're making decisions a lot quicker than in the past. maybe it works again but the one time it doesn't work i don't want to be exposed to that thesis. >> got to throw out the long-standing traditions. thanks. see you soon. the "fast money halftime report" coming up at the top of the hour. straight ahead, a first look at one of the most anticipated
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super bowl ads of the weekend. first though, a look at some of the winners and losers of the trading day coming to a close in europe. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our support teams are nearby, ready to help. it's no wonder so many investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade.
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some of the stories we are watching. home prices falling more than expected in november. according to s&p kay shiller. national home prices are near levels seen in 2003. video game maker thq may be quicked off nasdaq's exchange. company shares have traded below a dollar a share for 30 straight sessions. it has until mid-july to close above a dollar for at least ten
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sessions in a row. korean retailer e-land group is among short listed bidders in the bidding for the l.a. dodgers. when we come back, one of the most iconic super bowl advertisers is at it again. pepsi is revealing an ad here on "squawk on the street." this is an rc robotic claw. my high school science teacher made me what i am today. our science teacher helped us build it. ♪ now i'm a geologist at chevron, and i get to help science teachers. it has four servo motors and a wireless microcontroller. over the last three years we've put nearly 100 million dollars into american education. that's thousands of kids learning to love science. ♪ isn't that cool? and that's pretty cool. ♪
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♪ ♪ you got mud on your face you're a big disgrace ♪ the sunday super bowl rematch between the giants and patriots generating plenty of excitement but the buzz over the ads isbuilding. pepsi giving us a sneak peek of one of the ads in the big game. let's take a listen. ♪ >> pepsi max? really? i love pepsi max. i drink it myself. >> great. >> i bet you're wondering how they got that pepsi taste in a zero calorie. >> yeah. >> do we have a club card discount for pepsi max? >> i'm good. i'm good. >> you know what happens? pepsi max winner for life. >> i'm back. and you're my first guest. >> it's reg. >> yeah.
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>> you're going to be famous, kid. >> oh reg. simon loudon joins me here at the big board. good to see you. >> good to be here. >> first commercial regis has done for you guys. >> it is, yeah. >> tell us about the thematics through this. bringing back the cola wars to some degree. >> absolutely. this is the biggest stage for advertising in the u.s. and for the last 25 years pepsi's been part of it. and pepsi max, the commercial we just saw, is now a really big brand for us. one of the billion dollar brands and always had fun with it. always had fun jazzing up the cola wars and this is another great example. >> is this something you work on all yearlong? is it a thing you -- starting a week from sunday you're going to be working on super bowl xlvii ads. >> we spend time on it but not as long as that. it's one of the many things we do. after super bowl, grammys, summer campaigns.
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one of many things. >> another ad we won't see, see it sunday. tell us about this. >> sure. >> to the degree you can. >> absolutely. we were one of the "x factor" co-sponsors last season and taken the winner and teamed her up with elton john to bring back a pepsi commercial, regular pepsi commercial in the super bowl. 60-second commercial bringing pepsi and music back to the stage for the first time in a couple of years and cameo guests to see on sunday. >> of course, great tradition on monday is the monday morning quarterbacking of all the ads. "usa today" generally has the ad meter. in 23 years, pepsi's earned the number one spot six times. is there a secret to making it pop? >> yeah. i think one of the secrets this year is going to be to recognize it is not just about the traditional ad meter. the social space is really taking over so we have really extended the experience not just from the commercial but to
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during and post the show, as well. working with shazam for extra experiences. we have a platform to get involved in the social space. very much like a tv show with the commercials. it's much more than a traditional ad meter. of course, bringing entertainment and fun which is pepsi's forte and with meters. >> it is amazing, isn't it? before social media really took off, people were talking that the distribution of eyeballs in the country splintered. no one would watch the same thing and here a decade later and the super bowl, football in general, is stronger than ever. >> absolutely. and it's a myth that tv advertising is going away. my daughter's a great example. she watches tv. texting. on the internet at the same time. it is about many things together and not one thing rather than the other. >> what's the best quarter to air? you must know where your ad will fall. >> we have a pretty good idea. it is interesting, actually.
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there's been good success from different countries throughout the match so i think it's more about the communication than the placement of the commercial itself. >> yeah. what was it like working with regis? >> it was fun. he's a great -- i mean, a star, right? great fun, great sense of humor. great spokesman for the brand. >> probably nobody better live. >> absolutely. >> on the planet. best of luck. >> thank you. >> on monday. of course, we'll be watching sunday night. >> looking forward to it. >> of course, don't forget sunday's super bowl broadcast live on nbc. our parent company. and coverage will begin at noon eastern time. don't forget to tweet us today. ro which retail show do you dread going in to the most and why? we'll read some of your responses after this break. sch. the two trains and a bus rider. the "i'll sleep when it's done" academic.
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>> ikea because you are literally trapped inside. although the meatballs are delicious. i dreed going to abercrombie & fitch. i think simon was saying something just like that. tony tweets the apple store because i can't just walk by it like radioshack. gary, you do a fair amount of shopping. any thoughts? >> i shop online. you know? >> oh really? you and the control room again. >> i have to go to stores, talk to people. i'm not a nice guy. i don't want to have to talk to people. i'm in the control room, yes. we were having some fun moving your monitor around and stuff. see that later. i want to talk about copper real quick. after the economic data came out today, we had a selloff of copper. it's been up 10% in the month of january. been on a tear. off today after the u.s. economic data. the reason i point this out is i had the opportunity last night to be wine of the greatest copper traders in the world and
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goldman said, after today's data and the dropoff, use any pull back as a buying opportunity but unwound their position. there's some real, real significant buying behind when's been happening in copper since january 1st and this guy who i have tremendous admiration for pointed out he expects it to continue. keep your eye on that. >> interesting. gold i see turned negative. partly on dollar strength and profit taking. 200-day moving average on gold -- does that make sense to retest? i don't know. >> you get the sense as we end january, you have had such a huge move in the month of january, you're going to want to test to see whether or not this is sustainable. all these things you kept saying, been talking about what happens in january. you know, going to press the rest of the year. people want to test it. and so, you're going to expect to see that. todd is screaming at me -- todd telling me to wrap, wrap.
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okay, todd. i'm going to get to wrap. >> let's go to rick. >> i think the conversations of the day as we close out january, the old days, january set the stencil for the year. those days are long gone and i think today the data did give us a glimpse of how much the strategy of running in front of window dressings can be dangerous, especially after a lot of the tail winds we experienced the end of last year seemed to be moderating and tomorrow adp and then the big number on friday. i think are going to pretty much set the tone for february. if we get under 150,000 headline jobs on friday, i don't think the market's going to be impressed. >> we heard brian westbury with the 142 number. the kay shiller, too. a nice collision between the way the housing stocks performed this month and the notion out of

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